vineri, 27 noiembrie 2015

THE VALUE OF THE AGRICULTURAL LAND

Before 2008 anybody wihcih own a piese of land somewhere in te neighbouhood of a large city believe that the land is gold and his land is a 24k gold....Doesn't matter about details like roads, utilities, economic evolution of the city , demography... Any owner claim in that period incredible prices for any square meter. The time has pass and the lands are still in the middle of  the fields 90% of the real estate projects died before to be born because of the crisis. The owners which refuse good deals in that time now they have no offers from the developers. So they must take in consideration that their piece of land is just an agricultural plot. Not bad. Because the romanian solis are excellent for agriculture and the profit could be very big. But somebody must do something for. So, the management of a plot is very important . before everything the size of an agricultural  property is very important. Some properties are little (until 10 hectares) and the best solution is to fond a farmer which can make a contract with you. He will pay you every year around 150E-200E/ hectare. If your property is a middle size one (10-50 hectares) sure the options are many. The most simple one is to make a deak with a local farmer, which can guarantee a minimum income (probably 200E/hectare). The second option is to take in consideration to start your own agricultural project. Hire some people, sign contracts for special agricultural works (sowing, plowing,  threshing etc) find buyers for the crop, sing contracts to conserve a part of the crop for the winter (when the prices are bigger) . Of course the job si not easy but the profit could be vaery good. With a medium management a hectare could make 6-7 tones of wheat. that mean at least 850E /.hectare (brutto). Probably the netto number is around 500E. So. Is 150 % more that the initial option. With a good management the production could increase until 10 tones/hectare. The last calculation will take in consideration larger properties. Over 100 hectares. Over 100 hectares means around 225 american acres. Not a big farm in american terms but a larger one in european terms. Over 100 hectares need a plan in order to bring the best profit. Tha latest economical informations announce very nice profits. About 50000-55000E.100 hectares. The Nana property of Basescu' family  (300 hectares) announce a 144.000euro profit for this agricultural year. Especially from wheat, corn and rape (a little yellow pland which make a sort of vegetable oil) . The entire Nana property cost around 1,1 million euro. So, the profit is huge - around 15% returning on year. In the same time the value of the land increase. Only by the market generally  informations, the hectare of the land in southern part of Romania is about 4500E/hectare. And the trend could be very positive, until 10000E/ha. because this is the normal price in Europe for a good agriculture land. If the oil price will increase because of the latest evolution the price of agricultural products will increase severly, because a big part of the worlds cereals come from Argentina, Australia and New Zealand. So if the cost of shipping will severly increase sure he cost of food will increase. Recomandation is simple. By the land for food now. Is better like the "blue chips" from the Stocks.

joi, 19 noiembrie 2015

Market informations about Romania. Romanian SWOT analyse

I write this  post because a foreigner investor in Romania told me that every day is trying to get osme new informations about romanina economy and he did not find something. Sure, here, in romanian magasines and local webpages we write different things. Sure, the statistics of European Union mention about some romanian performances (or not) but some periodical market informations, based on true experiences...hard to find. My discussion with that investor was based on the land properties, especially on big agricultural properties. Doesn't matter this discussion, important is that from Bucharest to Miami, from Madagascar to Reykjavik the investors need informations about the quality of economic life in Romania. So, Romania in a short SWOT analyse could be presented in this way:
STRONG in Romania is
- Safety. Romania is a safe country. No one is afraid that people with bombs in a bag walk around. IN Romania police and secret services do a good job, especially in the big cities.
- the economic life is pretty good, with good numbers of sales especially in industry (biggest growth of exports in Europe since 2010) and retail. If you want to build a comercial building in the heart of a big city you can come in Romania. Despite other cities policies, here look like all the mayors love to build commercial centers and office building where no one ever believe before...
- price for labour are down and for lower salaries al the employers can find good workers (0 chances for riots)
- profit tax is low 16% and if you have good accountants (easy to find...) you can save some more money from taxes...
- excellent geographycal positions - 2-3 hours to fly from a lot of important world points ( Moscow, Tel Aviv, London, Paris), equal distances to China and USA
- the Danube allow to export very cheap to Europe.
WORST
-the Roads. Romania still have big problems with the roads, but probably in 3-5 yrs a big part of the problems will be vanishing
-corruption - in some parts of the country could be bigger like the average. Everywhere in the world is some corruption, so this is not a critical problem. And the good news are that the prosecutors really work hard to destroy some corruption octopussies.
- juridical system is a little to slow. A trial could keep 2-3 yrs until the problem is solve. Sometimes it takes 6-8 months until to the first term in court. Especially in Bucharest. Settlements almost not exist.
- attitude of some government agencies are not he best. Many public employes are not polite and are too quickly to cut tickets in stead to prevent by using other type of methodes (workshopes, warnings etc)
OPPORTUNITIES
- geographycal position
- safe country in a world of unsafety
- solid banking system
- strong IT industry
- educated and conservatory work labour. In many cases peple works 20-30 yrs in the same company
- large railway infrastructure
Danube infrastructure - a lot of little harbours which can help the investors
- excellent soiles for agricuture and good prices for land
- good prices for properties (rent / sale)
- excellent educational centers for foreigners in all the important languages (kindergardens, schools, colleges, universities)
THREATS
- some mayors did not understand that the municipalty is not their own property
- low natality

so..situation is pretty good. Dear investors come to Romania. Sure you make big money in safe conditions